An environmental group is suing the state in an effort to stop plans by Sierra Pacific Industries to cut down 5,000 acres of trees in Northern California.
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An environmental group is suing the state in an effort to stop plans by Sierra Pacific Industries to cut down 5,000 acres of trees in Northern California.
"Nearly nine-in-ten contractors say there will be no recovery in 2010 as part of a new national construction hiring and business outlook forecast released today by the Associated General Contractors of America.
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"The state Senate's labor committee is holding a public hearing today on a construction industry practice of paying workers under the table to avoid paying taxes.
"A federal spending surge of more than $20 billion for roads and bridges in President Barack Obama's first stimulus has had no effect on unemployment rates, raising questions about his argument for billions more to fill an 'urgent need to accelerate job growth.' An Associated Press analysis of stimulus spending found that it didn't matter if a lot ...
"According to the Commerce Department, retail sales were negative in December. This is much bleaker data than the same-store sales comps that came out a week ago. The decline was not what economists had expected. Sales were expected to rise 0.5 percent according to economists surveyed by Marketwatch.
The only silver lining here is that retail trade sales were up 5.9 percent over last year. So this December did mark an improvement over last year’s disastrous holiday shopping season. However, a look at business breakout reveals that the types of retailers that shopping center owners rely on had the weakest performance. The best year-over-year seasonally adjusted performers were gasoline stations (+33.6 percent), nonstore retailers (+10.6 percent) and auto and other motor vehicle dealers (+7.6%).
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $353.0 billion, a decrease of 0.3 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, but 5.4 percent (±0.5%) above December 2008. Total sales for the 12 months of 2009 were down 6.2 percent (±0.2%) from 2008. Total sales for the October through December 2009 period were up 1.9 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The October to November 2009 percent change was revised from +1.3 percent (±0.5%) to +1.8 percent (±0.2%).
Retail trade sales were down 0.2 percent (±0.5%)* from November 2009, but 5.9 percent (±0.5%) above last year. Gasoline stations sales were up 33.6 percent (±1.5%) from December 2008 and nonstore retailers sales were up 10.3 percent (±1.7%) from last year.
But why were the numbers so far off? Economist Dean Baker had a post up briefly here that seems to be gone now that said economists don’t account for a bias in same-store sales metrics when thinking about retail sales. Moreover, he points out that the December numbers showed a weak result in the general merchandise sector, which isn’t a great sign for retail real estate.
He explains:
The big culprit in this drop was the general merchandise sector (department stores and Wal-Mart), which had a 0.8 percent drop. The likely reason that many economists missed this drop is that they continue to ignore the same store sale bias. There are many fewer stores this year than last. This means that even if overall sales were constant, sales in same stores would rise. This bias will gradually disappear as we move forward and the comparison month in the previous year looks worse, but for now it is still substantial.
Calculated Risk’s monthly take is here.
California approved the most stringent, environmentally-friendly building code in the United States that will apply to new commercial buildings, hospitals, schools, shopping malls and homes, reports USA Today. The new code, which won a unanimous vote by the California Building Standards Commission, will take effect in January 2011.This comes courtesy of The Business Insider. It contrasts drops in retail sales in various recessions and shows what we’ve experienced since late 2007 is unlike anything we’ve seen previously.
It’s early January and the forecast pieces are out in force. Reuters, quoting research from CBRE, says we have to wait until 2011 before we see any growth in commercial real estate.
Time, meanwhile, calls commercial real estate a slow motion train wreck. That’s an interesting characterization of what’s going on. It’s a better turn of phrase than the oft-used “next shoe to drop” formulation. Commercial real estate has been dropping for well more than two years now. We’ve felt a great deal of pain already. There is more pain to come. But there’s not going to be some moment where it all clicks and everything just start collapsing. Moreover, I think it’s more likely than not that some winners begin to emerge amid the carnage. There are situations where you have properties that are not distressed in the conventional sense (i.e., vacant and not generating cashflow). You have properties that are distressed because they were overvalued and overleveraged. Some astute players are going to make a lot of money on those kinds of properties and I think that starts sooner rather than later.
A piece from the Associated Press concludes that it remains a tenant’s market in 2010. That seems a given. Vacancies are high. There’s not a lot of demand in any sector. Tenants that want locations are going to get sweet deals.
REITWrecks posted a pair of Bloomberg videos featuring Mort Zuckerman and Barry Sternlicht. The blog adds some of additional commentary to the mix. Zuckerman thinks major markets may have bottomed. Sternlicht, meanwhile, thinks the deep involvement of the government in commercial real estate–and rules that are enabling banks from realizing losses on commercial real estate–are keeping things in a holding pattern. REITWrecks concludes the post with the witty line: We’ll all be better off when the government tells the banks to just “confess that we made a mess”.
"After a weak November, retailers bounced back in a big way in December. ICSC, Retail Forward, Retail Metrics and RetailSails have all done the math in comparing results from various chains and the verdict is that many retailers had a very merry Christmas and largely beat expectations. Retail Forward, Retail Metrics and RetailSails concluded that same-store sales jumped 3.0 percent in the month while ICSC’s figures showed a 2.8 percent improvement. That made December the best month for retailers since July 2008 or April 2008, depending on whose numbers you look at.
ICSC’s tally shows that same-store sales rose 2.8 percent in December, the third time in four months that ICSC’s index has risen. The result is a nice rebound from the 0.3 percent drop in December. Overall, ICSC says the two-month figure for the holiday shopping season showed a 1.8 percent gain in same-store sales. The numbers beat ICSC’s initial projections, which predicted about a 1 percent increase for the November/December period.
ICSC’s numbers are based on 33 retailers. In the commentary in its monthly report, ICSC said:
The holiday season’s sales began slowly, but spending finished strongly as consumers were completing their holiday‐gift shopping later than last year (and later than in recent years for which ICSC has surveyed consumer spending patterns).
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Of particular note in December were strong sales for toys (noted by Toys R Us‐‐domestic comps rose by 4.6%, Target and Kmart, for example), electronics (noted by Target) and footwear (noted by Target, Bakers Footwear‐‐which posted a 9.9% comp‐store sales gain‐‐and JC Penney, for example). By segment, luxury‐department store sales soared by 7.1%‐‐helped by a promotional shift at Saks‐‐but that was the strongest segment performance since November 2007 (+11.4%).
Here are ICSC’s results going back to 1993.
According to Retail Forward, sales-weighted same-store sales excluding Walmart increased 3.0 percent in December for the 32 retailers that reported numbers. (A pdf with each retailer’s results can be downloaded here.) Frank Badillo, senior economist at Retail Forward, said in a statement, “The trend through the holidays is now pretty clear that shoppers are moving toward stronger spending into 2010. But it’s also clear that some cautiousness will persist and that spending will remain uneven across categories and retailers.”
Retail Metrics, meanwhile, reported that same-store sales increased 3.0 percent–the single biggest same-store sales gain that the firm has measured since April 2008. Combined for November and December, Retail Metrics’ calculates same-store sales rose 2.2 percent. The December results are 120 basis points better than it had been projecting. Retail Metrics’ numbers include 30 retailers. Of those, 14 posted gains, one had flat sales and 15 posted same-store sales declines.
According to the firm’s monthly report:
A last minute sales surge saved the day prior to and immediately following Christmas. Just as important were the slew of positive pre-announcements on 4Q earnings that came from retailers that were able to keep promotions in check and maintain all-important margins. Retailers are currently expected to post a 28.5% 4Q09 earnings gain, which will most certainly be revised upward. An impressive 72% beat expectations while just 28% missed, much better than long term averages.
RetailSails reached the same conclusion as RetailMetrics and says same-store sales rose 3.0 percent in December. The blog’s figures include numbers from 32 different retailers.
Retailers turned in a stronger-than-expected sales performance in December, as better inventory management and less promotional activity helped drive the best same-store sales results since April 2008. For the 32 companies RetailSails tracks, preliminary results show total sales rose 5.4% in December to $52.11 Billion, while same-store sales increased 3.0% compared to a 3.8% plunge in the year-ago period.
Here’s one chart from the post, but there are more here.
The pine beetle is being singled out as the main reason a Quesnel sawmill is shutting down, laying off 180 workers.
"Lumber producer Canfor Corp. says it will temporarily lay off 180 employees as part of a production curtailment at its sawmill in Quesnel, B.C. The duration of the layoffs, effective Jan.
"Companies in the U.S. expanded in December at the fastest pace in almost four years, signaling the economic recovery is gaining speed heading into 2010.
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